Presidential Polls

David Traver · Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 08:14 pm Post subject: Presidential Polls

There is some ongoing interest in whether the Democrats will win the White House and save America

or

whether the Republicans will prevail and drive America off a cliff.

So, I thought it would be nice to start a separate string about polls This picks up where the prior string left off:

http://ssaconnect.com/component/option,com_forum/Itemid,0/page,viewtopic/t,6759/#22485

Here we go!

deltajudge · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Posts: 287

I for one, am leery of polls. The latest Zogby shows McCain ahead of Obama by one point. The margin of error they use, makes this meaningless. If you rely on polls, Obama has taken a terrific hit, and is failing to gain any momentum, in spite of the overwhelming media coverage that has left McCain out there all alone. Meanwhile, he has been beating the bushes in the hustings while Obama basks in the limelight. Is Obama fatigue setting in?

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1174 Location: Michigan

From US News and World Report:

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/08/05/polls-show-the-race-between-obama-and-mccain-is-tightening.html

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1174 Location: Michigan

It has been a several months so here is the latest:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

It is still early and there is no judgment yet as anything is just a snapshot and a state by state gives the all important electoral vote - but here is for what it worth.

Guest · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 02:34 am Post subject:

You wonder about polls and public opinion and when you observe Obama's performance over the weekend. When you let a lightweight like McCain overwhelm you, what you gonna do? His poll numbers just ain't coming up. Not to worry McCain is going to screw up.

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1174 Location: Michigan

Well - Maybe this is what you are referring to?

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-politics/20080820/POLITICS-USA-POLL-POLITICS-DC/

deltajudge · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Posts: 287

Obama is a remarkable guy. He came out of nowhere, and that is where he is. It is unbelievable that all this hysteria surrounds him. Look at his record. Nothing there qualifies him to be the President of the most powerful and influential nation in the world. We probably have the least qualified candidates for the presidency in many years. Cool

deltajudge · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Posts: 287

If you believe in polls, which I don't, apparently people are listening to someone. I don't let other people make up my mind, I look at the person, and believe me, I have looked at Obama. Zogby has McCain leading among most likely voters by 5 points, which is basicallly a tie. Obama can't get a toehold. Maybe others are taking a closer look at him. Cool

David Traver · Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 03:01 pm Post subject:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ (popular vote)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ (where the real race is)

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1174 Location: Michigan

Another e-mail I got:

Electoral College

Overview: While McCain has enjoyed something of a surge in recent days, our Electoral College analysis ultimately breaks down the same way it did one month ago: a one—state Obama victory. The battleground appears to be narrowing a bit.

While no states switch sides this month, we move Indiana more firmly into McCain's column, and Oregon more firmly into Obama's. Obama 273, McCain 268.

Indiana (11 Electoral Votes): Talk of a possible Obama win in the Hoosier State ought to start fading away soon, now that Obama has passed over Bayh. A recent Rasmussen survey showed the race for Indiana's 11 Electoral votes close, but that's a bit misleading. Obama's unfavorable ratings in this state are at 44%—and this is a state he spent considerable energy and time trying to win during the convention. The 14% undecided will break strongly for McCain. The campaigns might forget about this one by October. Solid Republican.

Oregon (7 EV): Early polls had shown Obama underperforming here, but no signs have emerged of a McCain renaissance. A Republican implosion in a competitive House race doesn't help matters, either. McCain can write off the West coast. Solid Democrat.

Virginia (13 EV): The race for Virginia's 13 Electoral votes is a fine example of how a simplistic reading of polls leads to an inflated impression of Obama's chances this fall.

Obama dominated the Democratic primary here, and recent polls show a statistical tie. The state is moving in a Democratic direction, and so Democrats have reason to be confident. But a statistical tie between Obama and McCain with 9% undecided (the result in the August 12 Rasmussen poll) is a McCain advantage. Throw in Obama's 46% unfavorable rating (McCain's is 36%) and you begin to see that this tie is not a tie.

McCain will have to work hard to win Virginia, and that's enough of a job, but it is not a swing state, properly speaking. In other words, Obama will likely carry Virginia only if he is winning the nation handily. Leaning Republican.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1174 Location: Michigan

Newest electoral polls:

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

David Traver · Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 02:04 pm Post subject:

Senator Obama is now holding at 50%, which is the first time he has been in that range. It looks like the undecideds decided, which did not cut Senator McCain's numbers appreciably, but gave a push to Senator Obama.

There should be a big boost in Senator McCain's numbers as the nation celebrates yesterday's video presentation by President Bush at the Republican National Convention and the complete absence of Vice President Cheney. Also, there should be a lot of interest and a big bump as soon as Senator McCain's staff finishes vetting the VP choice and they decide if they will go forward with Gov. Palin pick a Democrat for the VP post.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1174 Location: Michigan

Now McCain at 54% with his convention bounce - indeed an interesting horse race. The polls may not mean anything with the electoral vote map included but everything is in flux and smugness on any side is a prescription for losing.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

deltajudge · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Posts: 287

As far as polls go, which I have given my opinion about, the swing states have the candidates basically tied. Obama is running out of gas. There is just so much you can say about hope and change with the attached oratory, but the questions now appear, what is the groundwork for hope and change?

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1174 Location: Michigan

Another electoral vote link and assorted polls:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/