Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 04:58 pm Post subject: Last night's Presidential debate . . . and the loser is . .
Quote:
I apologize if I sound like a broken record. But once again, Obama won the debate according to essentially every objective metric. And recall that, even if the debate were a tie, this would not have helped John McCain; he needed a clear win tonight. Instead, he's continued to dig himself into a deeper electoral hole.
The sense I had tonight was that McCain was overcoached -- that he was trying too hard. I don't think that he made any significant tactical errors. But he came across as nervous and awkward. And he is longer really fighting on a level playing field. In order to win this election, McCain needed to keep the Republican brand at arm's-length. He had largely managed to do that until the Lehman Brothers collapse scared the Hell out of Main Street and reminded everyone of the failures of the status quo. McCain needed to empathize on the economy; his "fundamentals" comment made that very difficult. He needed to find some way to position himself in opposition to Senator Obama on the bailout, but he had boxed himself in with his gambit about suspending his campaign. McCain lost tonight, but the reasons for his failure stem from long before this eveni
Notice the use of regression analysis and the weighting of various polls based upon the prior accuracy of the polls and other factors such as cultural and geographical proximity to other polled states and the demographics of the state. This takes the liberal spin out of CNN polls and the conservative spin out of Fox polls, eg.
This week on Colbert, one of the partners running the site explained that even if the pollster, such as CNN or FOX is neutral to the best of its ability, the use of the pollster's name in the communication with the surveyed individual is enough to taint the results due to polarization of the electorate.
These guys started off handicapping sporting events. They a very interesting pair of super-nerds. Lovely stuff.
Joined: 13 May 2004 Posts: 740 Location: Federal Hill, Baltimore, MD
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject:
Incredible stuff, I'd say. For polling info, I think it's the best, period. I like Real Clear Politics for getting a good feel for what the 'chattering class' is up to.
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